Texas has been very lucky with landfalling Hurricanes recently as there have only been 4 this century (not counting Rita which technically made landfall in Louisiana).
- Claudette (2001): Category 1 near Victoria
- Humberto (2007): Category 1 near High Island
- Dolly (2008): Category 1 near South Padre island
- Ike (2008): Category 2 near Galveston
This number may very well increase this weekend, as the remnants of Harvery look to reorganize (hence Zombie Harvie) in the Bay of Campeche overnight with an upper level low in the northern gulf steering the system toward the Texas coast. Harvey at the minimum will become a tropical storm, but warm sea surface temperatures and strong venting from an upper level low to its north could intensify the cyclone to a hurricane.
Regardless of Harvey’s strength at landfall, it could be a doozy for Texas, as significant flooding is also a concern for the Southeast portions of the state. We will keep you posted with updates as the storm develops, but if you would like to do some forecasting of your own, here are some useful websites.
- Tropicaltidbits.com: Discussion Blog, Forecast Models, Aircraft Recon, Analysis Tools
- Pivotalweather.com: Robust suite of forecast model visualizations
Once Harvey has a closed low via National Hurricane center I will make a post with my expected path and landfall intensity. The current consensus track is troubling when coupled with a stalled frontal boundary forecasted over Central Texas this weekend. All of this moisture from the storm will bump against the front causing very heavy concentration of precipitation along the front even a bit away from the storm. We’ve seen examples of this phenomenon along the east coast where landfalling tropical systems can sometimes pool moisture along fronts and produce tremendous rainfall events. Vermont is a prime example during Irene in 2011.
Despite the strong uncertainty in the forecast, if you are anywhere along the Texas coast, we recommend revieviwng your storm preparedness plans.
— NWS Houston (@NWSHouston) August 22, 2017